Following are comments from economists at leading financial institutions, banks and rating agencies on the interim Budget:
Make minimum payments on all debts, then use extra funds to tackle the smallest debt first.
The highlights of RBI's bi-monthly monetary policy announced by Governor Shaktikanta Das:
The central government is on track to meet its fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of the GDP for 2022-23 on the back of strong growth in revenue collections, the World Bank said in its India Development Update on Tuesday. High nominal GDP growth in the first quarter supported strong growth in revenue collection, especially Goods and Services Tax (GST), despite tax cuts on fuel. Notwithstanding an increase in spending due to expanded fertilizer subsidies and food subsidies for vulnerable households in response to the commodity price shock, the government is on track to meet its FY22/23 fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of GDP and the general government deficit is projected to decline to 9.6 per cent from 10.3 per cent in FY21/22 and 13.3 per cent in FY20/21.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday retained the retail inflation projection at 4.5 per cent for fiscal 2024-25, with Governor Shaktikanta Das stressing that the central bank will have to closely monitor the price situation and keep the "inflation horse" under tight leash lest it may bolt again. Unveiling the October bi-monthly monetary policy, the Governor also said the flexible inflation targeting (FIT) framework has completed 8 years since its introduction in 2016 and is a major structural reform of the 21st century in India.
Crisil Ratings on Wednesday projected India's GDP growth at 6.8 per cent in the next fiscal and said the country will become an upper middle-income nation by 2031 with the economy doubling to $7 trillion. In its India Outlook report, Crisil said the Indian economy will take support from domestic structural reforms and cyclical levers and can retain -- perhaps even improve -- its growth prospects to become the third largest economy by 2031. "After a better-than-expected 7.6 per cent this fiscal, India's real GDP growth will likely moderate to 6.8 per cent in fiscal 2025," said the Crisil India Outlook report.
The state's economic health is in focus as it has consistently breached the fiscal deficit in eight of the last 10 years since Telangana's formation.
The BJP losing its outright majority and relying on allies to form a government could pose challenges for the more ambitious elements of reform agenda like land and labour, Fitch Ratings said in a note on Wednesday. Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP lost its majority for the first time since 2014, winning 240 seats in the 543-seat Lok Sabha.
With Donald Trump all set to become US president, Indian exporters may face high customs duties for goods like automobiles, textiles and pharmaceuticals if the new US administration decides to pursue the 'America First' agenda, opined trade experts. Experts also said that Trump could also tighten H-1B visa rules, impacting costs and growth for Indian IT firms. Over 80 per cent of India's IT export earnings come from the US, making it vulnerable to changes in visa policies.
'The conspiracy is to end India's entrepreneurship culture even before it fully blooms.' 'Negativity is being spread in society towards all those who do business, and this hatred for business and wealth creators is spilling everywhere.'
'Like every Budget, this time, too, there is chatter around tinkering with the long-term capital gains tax.' 'Investors may not want to jump into the markets until there is clarity on this front.'
The Economic Survey said that a number of indicators -- GDP, IIP, credit, investment and capacity utilisation, point to a deceleration in real activity since first quarter of 2016-17 and a further deceleration since the third quarter.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday raised the GDP growth projection for the current fiscal to 7 per cent from 6.5 per cent earlier on buoyant domestic demand and higher capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, however, flagged protracted geopolitical turmoil and global economic fragmentation as risks to the growth outlook. The RBI kept interest rates unchanged at 6.5 per cent in Friday's monetary policy statement.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday decided to keep the policy rate unchanged for the tenth time in a row but changed its stance to 'neutral' that may lead to a cut in the forthcoming policies. RBI maintained status quo despite the US Federal Reserve lowering the benchmark rates by 50 basis points last month.
This move will enable it to incur higher-than-mandated borrowing, and possibly spending, till the 2024 Lok Sabha election cycle.
Former US President Obama was featured wearing a number of ensembles some gladiator-inspired and a basketball one among others.
The panel may include or seek inputs from former RBI Governor Urjit Patel, former chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian, Sajjid Chinoy of the PM-EAC, Rathin Roy, among others.
Passenger vehicle wholesales crossed the 10-lakh mark for the first time ever in the June quarter riding on the back of robust demand for utility vehicles, industry body SIAM said on Friday. Total dispatches of passenger vehicles in the first quarter stood at 10,26,006 units, up 3 per cent as compared with 996,565 units in April-June FY24. Utility vehicle sales rose 18 per cent to 645,794 units in the first quarter as against 547,194 units in the year-ago period.
'It would be reasonable to assume that Modi 3.0 would be more focused on projects and schemes which do not require any legislative change or which have the support of its coalition partners,' asserts A K Bhattacharya.
Experts disagree with the idea and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which has the sole right to print money, is not comfortable with it as well.
Yes Bank on Saturday reported over two-fold jump in standalone net profit at Rs 452 crore for March quarter 2023-24, primarily due to benefits on the provision front. In the year-ago quarter, the bank logged a profit of Rs 202.43 crore. The private sector lender benefitted from write-back on income tax and interest on income tax returns, but the profits were limited by its inability to comply with the mandatory priority sector lending (PSL) requirements, its management said.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday revised upwards the GDP growth projection for the current fiscal to 7.2 per cent from 7 per cent on rising private consumption and revival of demand in rural areas. Unveiling the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said estimates released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) placed India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 8.2 per cent in 2023-24. "During 2024-25 so far, domestic economic activity has maintained resilience," he said, adding that manufacturing activity continues to gain ground on the back of strengthening domestic demand.
An asset swap can simultaneously boost public investment, reduce the fiscal deficit and keep fiscal policy from being pro-cyclical.
The Indian economy requires a Rs 3 lakh crore fiscal stimulus, including cash transfer to households through Jan Dhan accounts to spur economic growth amid the pandemic, industry chamber CII said on Thursday and pitched for appointment of a 'Vaccine Czar' for speedy vaccination coverage. CII president T V Narendran also said the chamber expects GDP to grow at 9.5 per cent in 2021-22 as the strong growth in the second half of the fiscal year will be supported by robust external demand and large-scale coverage of vaccination, allowing resumption of economic activity. He also advocated for appointment of a "Vaccine Czar" for speedy vaccination coverage.
A combination of factors, including heavy investments in US Treasury bonds and dollar sales at a healthy profit, facilitated the Indian central bank in transferring a record surplus of Rs 2.11 trillion to the government for 2023-24 (FY24). The RBI's dollar purchases increased in FY24, supported by robust capital inflows endorsing the economy's health.
Adani group companies have reported a 13.7 per cent rise in cash reserve to Rs 45,895 crore in the first half of the current fiscal as earnings across the business rose while debt was almost unchanged. In the half-year credit performance report, Adani said while EBITDA rose to Rs 71,253 crore in April-September this fiscal from Rs 57,219 crore a year back, gross assets increased 6 per cent to about Rs 4.5 lakh crore. Gross debt was almost unchanged at Rs 2.26 lakh crore, but after considering cash reserves, the net debt at Rs 1.80 lakh crore was 3.6 per cent less than Rs 1.87 lakh crore in April-September 2022.
>According to the latest RBI data, PPF receipts have already experienced a decline between April 2023 and February 2024. Other schemes like the Sukanya Samriddhi Account and National Savings Certificate are also witnessing reduced inflows.
India's merchandise exports dipped marginally in March to $41.69 billion, and by 3.11 per cent during the last fiscal year to $437.06 billion mainly due to continued geopolitical turmoil, and depressed global trade. Imports, too, declined in March as well during the entire 2023-24. Trade deficit, or the gap between imports and exports, narrowed 17.74 per cent in March to $15.6 billion and came down 9.33 per cent to $240.17 billion in FY24.
What stood out in his 15-year journey as a member of the political executive at the Centre was his glowing record as India's most successful and effective finance minister. Both as prime minister and finance minister, he understood the importance of gradualism, except when the economy or the polity was in a crisis.
The finance minister continues to be backed by the same policy team in charting out the broad strategy as in the few earlier Budgets.
'Whether I am optimistic or pessimistic is not the issue; I am just going by the evidence available.' 'The Indian economy and financial sector are now well-placed and very resilient in dealing with any kind of spillover coming from the external world.'
There hasn't been any dramatic moment in the first act (the Budget) but nobody would complain. It's par for the course as long as the figures don't change in the main Budget, which will be presented after general elections.
Three years after India declared its goal to become a net-zero economy by 2070, the policy design for achieving the target has begun, with the NITI Aayog forming dedicated multi-sectoral committees to prepare a transition plan. In 2021, India joined a select group of nations that set a target year for becoming net-zero carbon economy. At COP26 in Glasgow, Prime Minister Narendra Modi outlined a five-pronged 'Panchamitra' climate action target for India and committed to a net-zero target by 2070, joining nations like the US, the UK, and China.
India's fiscal deficit trends are a bit like an alcoholic trying, unsuccessfully, to reform. Virtue does not last for too long, says Shankar Acharya.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday retained its projection for retail inflation at 4.5 per cent for the current fiscal assuming a normal monsoon, while emphasising that uncertainties related to food price outlook warrant a close monitoring. Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation has been projected at 4.5 per cent with quarter-wise projections at 4.9 per cent in Q1 (April-June), 3.8 per cent in Q2, 4.6 per cent in Q3, and 4.5 per cent in Q4.
Domestic exporters on Monday expressed concerns over the crisis in Bangladesh and said the developments in the neighbouring country would have implications on bilateral trade. However, exporters expect that the situation may normalise soon. According to exporters, they are already facing disruptions in exports to Bangladesh due to a shortage of foreign exchange in that country.
A total of Rs 52,759 crore has been raised by 61 companies through initial public offers till October this fiscal, higher than the funds mopped up through this route in the last financial year, the government told the Lok Sabha on Monday. Out of the 61 companies that hit the markets till October of the current fiscal, 34 entities were Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that a large number of manufacturing and service sector companies are coming up for listing.
India recorded a current account surplus of $5.7 billion or 0.6 per cent of GDP in the March quarter, the Reserve Bank of India said on Monday. This is the first time in ten quarters that the crucial metric of the country's external strength has turned into surplus mode. In the year-ago period, the current account deficit stood at $1.3 billion or 0.2 per cent of GDP, and the same was $8.7 billion or 1 per cent of GDP in the preceding quarter ending December 2023.
'Asset allocation should be driven much more by long-term factors rather than the market scenario at any particular point in time.'
Online food delivery platform Zomato will acquire Paytm's entertainment ticketing business for Rs 2,048 crore to strengthen its "going-out" segment in a deal that will help the troubled fintech firm to sharpen its focus on core payments and financial services distribution.
